THE FINAL PREDICTIONS
DECEMBER 15, 2024
DECEMBER 15, 2024
(Denmark - The Girl with the Needle; Italy - Vermiglio; Brazil - I'm Still Here)
This year is shaping up to be the most challenging yet for predicting which films will make the shortlist on December 17th. With an overwhelming number of contenders and endless possibilities, along with the unpredictable nature of this category, it makes it harder than ever to call. In 2022, we successfully predicted 12 out of 15. Last year, we improved with 13 out of 15. How will we stack up this time? Let's find out!
The Palm Springs International Film Festival has unveiled its 2025 lineup, featuring 35 official International Feature submissions. Remarkably, the festival has screened 43 of the 45 shortlisted films over the past three years, solidifying its reputation as the most reliable predictor of this year’s shortlist.
The films playing this year are the following:
It’s highly likely that at least 14 of the 15 shortlisted films will be among the 35 featured at the festival. But that raises an intriguing question: which notable films were left out? Here are five contenders we believe could still surprise us.
The Palm Springs International Film Festival has unveiled its 2025 lineup, featuring 35 official International Feature submissions. Remarkably, the festival has screened 43 of the 45 shortlisted films over the past three years, solidifying its reputation as the most reliable predictor of this year’s shortlist.
The films playing this year are the following:
- Armand (Norway)
- Come Closer (Israel)
- Dahomey (Senegal)
- Drowning Dry (Lithuania)
- Emilia Pérez (France)
- Everybody Loves Touda (Morocco)
- Flow (Latvia)
- From Ground Zero (Palestine)
- The Girl with The Needle (Denmark)
- Grand Tour (Portugal)
- How To Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)
- The Hungarian Dressmaker (Slovakia)
- I’m Still Here (Brazil)
- Julie Keeps Quiet (Belgium)
- Kill the Jockey (Argentina)
- Kneecap (Ireland)
- La Suprema (Colombia)
- The Last Journey (Sweden)
- Life (Turkey)
- Lost Ladies (India)
- Meeting With Pol Pot (Cambodia)
- Memories of a Burning Body (Costa Rica)
- My Late Summer (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
- Old Fox (Taiwan)
- Santosh (United Kingdom)
- Saturn Return (Spain)
- The Seed of The Sacred Fig (Germany)
- Shambhala (Nepal)
- Sujo (Mexico)
- Three Kilometers to The End of The World (Romania)
- Touch (Iceland)
- Twilight Of the Warriors: Walled In (Hong Kong)
- Universal Language (Canada)
- Vermiglio (Italy)
- Waves (Czech Republic)
It’s highly likely that at least 14 of the 15 shortlisted films will be among the 35 featured at the festival. But that raises an intriguing question: which notable films were left out? Here are five contenders we believe could still surprise us.
- Abang Adik (Malaysia)
- Bauryna Salu (Kazakhstan)
- The Devil's Bath (Austria)
- If Only I Could Hibernate (Mongolia)
- Memory Lane (Netherlands)
(Netherlands - Memory Lane; Kazakhstan - Bauryna Salu; Malaysia - Abang Adik)
Another major indicator to consider is where the films made their debut, particularly at one of the prestigious festivals: Sundance, Berlin, Cannes, Venice, Toronto, or Telluride. Over the past three years, 39 out of the 45 shortlisted films premiered at one of these festivals. Looking at the 35 films featured at Palm Springs, here’s a breakdown of those that also had their debut at these renowned festivals:
That leaves us with 24 films at Palm Springs that also debuted at one of these prestigious festivals. But what about the standout films at Palm Springs that didn’t have their debut at one of these events? Here are the five films we believe deserve attention:
- Armand (Norway)
- Dahomey (Senegal)
- Emilia Pérez (France)
- Everybody Loves Touda (Morocco)
- Flow (Latvia)
- From Ground Zero (Palestine)
- The Girl with The Needle (Denmark)
- Grand Tour (Portugal)
- I’m Still Here (Brazil)
- Julie Keeps Quiet (Belgium)
- Kill the Jockey (Argentina)
- Kneecap (Ireland)
- La Suprema (Colombia)
- Lost Ladies (India)
- Meeting With Pol Pot (Cambodia)
- Memories of a Burning Body (Costa Rica)
- Santosh (United Kingdom)
- The Seed of The Sacred Fig (Germany)
- Shambhala (Nepal)
- Sujo (Mexico)
- Three Kilometers to The End of The World (Romania)
- Twilight Of the Warriors: Walled In (Hong Kong)
- Universal Language (Canada)
- Vermiglio (Italy)
That leaves us with 24 films at Palm Springs that also debuted at one of these prestigious festivals. But what about the standout films at Palm Springs that didn’t have their debut at one of these events? Here are the five films we believe deserve attention:
- Come Closer (Israel)
- How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)
- The Last Journey (Sweden)
- Saturn Return (Spain)
- Waves (Czechia)
(Thailand - How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies; Czechia - Waves; Sweden - The Last Journey)
Films that have earned nominations from the NBR, Golden Globes, and the Critics Choice Awards are shortlisted 95% of the time. With that in mind, these nine films feel like near locks—they're also screening at Palm Springs and had their debuts at one of the top-tier festivals:
We feel that the following film is also in because it's been getting recognition for most documentary awards too:
That brings us to ten films so far. So, who are the final five contenders? Let’s turn to Letterboxd for insight. Over the past three years, 44 out of 45 shortlisted films have held a score above 3.5. These films, which are playing at Palm Springs, debuted at a top festival, and have Letterboxd scores above 3.5, are:
That narrows it down to nine films. Among these, we believe the following five films are generating the most buzz and could be in:
- Emilia Pérez (France)
- Flow (Latvia)
- The Girl with The Needle (Denmark)
- I’m Still Here (Brazil)
- Kneecap (Ireland)
- Santosh (United Kingdom)
- The Seed of The Sacred Fig (Germany)
- Universal Language (Canada)
- Vermiglio (Italy)
We feel that the following film is also in because it's been getting recognition for most documentary awards too:
- Dahomey (Senegal)
That brings us to ten films so far. So, who are the final five contenders? Let’s turn to Letterboxd for insight. Over the past three years, 44 out of 45 shortlisted films have held a score above 3.5. These films, which are playing at Palm Springs, debuted at a top festival, and have Letterboxd scores above 3.5, are:
- From Ground Zero (Palestine)
- Julie Keeps Quiet (Belgium)
- Kill the Jockey (Argentina)
- La Suprema (Colombia)
- Lost Ladies (India)
- Memories of a Burning Body (Costa Rica)
- Shambhala (Nepal)
- Sujo (Mexico)
- Twilight Of the Warriors: Walled In (Hong Kong)
That narrows it down to nine films. Among these, we believe the following five films are generating the most buzz and could be in:
- Julie Keeps Quiet (Belgium)
- Kill the Jockey (Argentina)
- Lost Ladies (India)
- Memories of a Burning Body (Costa Rica)
- Sujo (Mexico)
(Mexico - Sujo; Costa Rica - Memories of a Burning Body; Belgium - Julie Keeps Quiet)
From Ground Zero (Palestine) is a tricky contender. While it’s receiving exceptional reviews, we see it more as a collection of short stories rather than a cohesive film, making it difficult to predict how voters will respond to it.
Among the films not playing at Palm Springs, we believe Abang Adik (Malaysia) has the best chance to surprise. As for the films that didn’t debut at one of the major film festivals, we think How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand), The Last Journey (Sweden), and Waves (Czechia) stand the best chance of making the cut.
We think these five films will just miss the cut:
And these are the films we think will be shortlisted on December 17th:
Among the films not playing at Palm Springs, we believe Abang Adik (Malaysia) has the best chance to surprise. As for the films that didn’t debut at one of the major film festivals, we think How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand), The Last Journey (Sweden), and Waves (Czechia) stand the best chance of making the cut.
We think these five films will just miss the cut:
- Abang Adik (Malaysia)
- From Ground Zero (Palestine)
- Kill the Jockey (Argentina)
- Lost Ladies (India)
- Memories of a Burning Body (Costa Rica)
And these are the films we think will be shortlisted on December 17th:
Dahomey (Senegal)
Emilia Perez (France)
Flow (Latvia)
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)
I'm Still Here (Brazil)
Julie Keeps Quiet (Belgium)
Kneecap (Ireland)
The Last Journey (Sweden)
Santosh (United Kingdom)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Sujo (Mexico)
Universal Language (Canada)
Vermiglio (Italy)
Waves (Czechia)
Emilia Perez (France)
Flow (Latvia)
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)
I'm Still Here (Brazil)
Julie Keeps Quiet (Belgium)
Kneecap (Ireland)
The Last Journey (Sweden)
Santosh (United Kingdom)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Sujo (Mexico)
Universal Language (Canada)
Vermiglio (Italy)
Waves (Czechia)
Out of these 15 predicted films, all are screening at Palm Springs, 12 debuted at one of the top film festivals, and 14 boast a Letterboxd score higher than 3.5.