WHO WILL GET NOMINATED FOR AN OSCAR?
JANUARY 21, 2024
JANUARY 21, 2024
(United Kingdom, Bhutan, Spain)
Usually by now we would have a solid favourite headed towards the Oscar nominations. Last year, for example, All Quiet on the Western Front was the frontrunner. The years before that, Drive My Car, Another Round, Parasite and Roma were all the overwhelming frontrunners to win best International Feature. This year, however, is a little bit different.
The year started with two films becoming instant contenders out of Cannes Film Festival: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) and Anatomy of a Fall. The ecstatic reviews coming from their world premieres elevated them to early frontrunner status. But, once Anatomy of a Fall wasn't submitted for France, The Zone of Interest became the solid frontrunner. The tricky part about this season though is that Anatomy of a Fall has won the NBR Awards, NY Film Critics, the Golden Globe Awards, and the Critics Choice Awards. The Zone of Interest did win LA but it hasn't been able to solidify its frontrunner status yet because it's not winning the majority of the awards. But despite that, the British film is the favourite headed to the Oscar nominations, because it just received a PGA nomination and it was nominated for a lot of categories with BAFTA.
On December 21, the list of 88 contenders got reduced down to 15. The following films are the finalists:
The year started with two films becoming instant contenders out of Cannes Film Festival: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) and Anatomy of a Fall. The ecstatic reviews coming from their world premieres elevated them to early frontrunner status. But, once Anatomy of a Fall wasn't submitted for France, The Zone of Interest became the solid frontrunner. The tricky part about this season though is that Anatomy of a Fall has won the NBR Awards, NY Film Critics, the Golden Globe Awards, and the Critics Choice Awards. The Zone of Interest did win LA but it hasn't been able to solidify its frontrunner status yet because it's not winning the majority of the awards. But despite that, the British film is the favourite headed to the Oscar nominations, because it just received a PGA nomination and it was nominated for a lot of categories with BAFTA.
On December 21, the list of 88 contenders got reduced down to 15. The following films are the finalists:
Armenia - Amerikatsi
Bhutan - The Monk and the Gun
Denmark - The Promised Land
Finland - Fallen Leaves
France - The Taste of Things
Germany - The Teachers' Lounge
Iceland - Godland
Italy - The Captain
Japan - Perfect Days
Mexico - Totem
Morocco - The Mother of All Lies
Spain - Society of the Snow
Tunisia - Four Daughters
Ukraine - 20 Days in Mariupol
United Kingdom - The Zone of Interest
Bhutan - The Monk and the Gun
Denmark - The Promised Land
Finland - Fallen Leaves
France - The Taste of Things
Germany - The Teachers' Lounge
Iceland - Godland
Italy - The Captain
Japan - Perfect Days
Mexico - Totem
Morocco - The Mother of All Lies
Spain - Society of the Snow
Tunisia - Four Daughters
Ukraine - 20 Days in Mariupol
United Kingdom - The Zone of Interest
(Tunisia, Iceland, Armenia)
So which films do we think will get nominated on January 23rd? With The Zone of Interest being a lock for a nomination, let's divide the remaining 14 films into three groups.
Let's start with the five films that have been getting nominated at various award shows, that have been released in theatres across North America, and that are now available everywhere on Video on Demand:
Amerikatsi was the biggest surprise when the shortlisted top 15 films were announced. The film wasn't originally part of the Palm Springs Film Festival (it was added later) and it feels like just being amongst the top 15 films is a win in itself. We feel that it has the least chance of these five films to be nominated.
Godland has some of the best reviews of the year, and it is one of our personal favourites. Backed by Janus Films, and already playing everywhere on Video on Demand including the Criterion Channel, the film has generated a lot of buzz. The problem that the film is facing is that it debuted at Cannes in 2022 and it feels like it had the momentum last season. The film though wasn't released in theatres in Iceland until 2023, and so the incredible film Beautiful Beings was chosen to represent them last season. This has caused some of its buzz to die down because the film feels older than the other submissions. We feel that it will just miss being nominated as a result.
Four Daughters has the chance to be nominated for two Oscars, as it was shortlisted for Best Documentary as well. Director Kaouther Ben Hania was also nominated for an Oscar for her film The Man Who Sold His Skin. Kino Lorber is running a brilliant campaign for the film and it really feels like Tunisia can be back for an Oscar nomination for one of the most unique, shocking films of the year. It is right now heavily favoured to be nominated for Best Documentary and we wonder if voters will think that perhaps one nomination is enough for the film in such a heavily competitive field for International Feature.
Another film that has the same problem is 20 Days in Mariupol. This film was also shortlisted for Best Documentary and like Four Daughters it is heavily favoured to be nominated and perhaps even win in that category. The film is one of the most eye-opening, incredibly hard to watch documentaries of the year, and like Navalny, which won the Oscar last year, it feels like the Ukrainian film might follow in its footsteps. It is also the #1 rated film of the year on Letterboxd out of all 88 submissions. The film is available for free on YouTube too. Since it seems to be slightly ahead of Four Daughters in the documentary category, we feel like it might be able to get nominated for two Oscars.
Society of the Snow is a near lock for a nomination. The film has solidified its position for being an Oscar nominee for its nominations at the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, the BAFTA Awards and for being shortlisted for several more categories for the Oscars. The film just debuted on Netflix to massive ratings and the film is peaking at the right time. Acclaimed director J.A. Bayona may have just made the best film of his career and we feel that it's the only one that can beat The Zone of Interest at the moment.
Let's start with the five films that have been getting nominated at various award shows, that have been released in theatres across North America, and that are now available everywhere on Video on Demand:
- Amerikatsi (Armenia)
- Godland (Iceland)
- Society of the Snow (Spain)
- Four Daughters (Tunisia)
- 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
Amerikatsi was the biggest surprise when the shortlisted top 15 films were announced. The film wasn't originally part of the Palm Springs Film Festival (it was added later) and it feels like just being amongst the top 15 films is a win in itself. We feel that it has the least chance of these five films to be nominated.
Godland has some of the best reviews of the year, and it is one of our personal favourites. Backed by Janus Films, and already playing everywhere on Video on Demand including the Criterion Channel, the film has generated a lot of buzz. The problem that the film is facing is that it debuted at Cannes in 2022 and it feels like it had the momentum last season. The film though wasn't released in theatres in Iceland until 2023, and so the incredible film Beautiful Beings was chosen to represent them last season. This has caused some of its buzz to die down because the film feels older than the other submissions. We feel that it will just miss being nominated as a result.
Four Daughters has the chance to be nominated for two Oscars, as it was shortlisted for Best Documentary as well. Director Kaouther Ben Hania was also nominated for an Oscar for her film The Man Who Sold His Skin. Kino Lorber is running a brilliant campaign for the film and it really feels like Tunisia can be back for an Oscar nomination for one of the most unique, shocking films of the year. It is right now heavily favoured to be nominated for Best Documentary and we wonder if voters will think that perhaps one nomination is enough for the film in such a heavily competitive field for International Feature.
Another film that has the same problem is 20 Days in Mariupol. This film was also shortlisted for Best Documentary and like Four Daughters it is heavily favoured to be nominated and perhaps even win in that category. The film is one of the most eye-opening, incredibly hard to watch documentaries of the year, and like Navalny, which won the Oscar last year, it feels like the Ukrainian film might follow in its footsteps. It is also the #1 rated film of the year on Letterboxd out of all 88 submissions. The film is available for free on YouTube too. Since it seems to be slightly ahead of Four Daughters in the documentary category, we feel like it might be able to get nominated for two Oscars.
Society of the Snow is a near lock for a nomination. The film has solidified its position for being an Oscar nominee for its nominations at the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, the BAFTA Awards and for being shortlisted for several more categories for the Oscars. The film just debuted on Netflix to massive ratings and the film is peaking at the right time. Acclaimed director J.A. Bayona may have just made the best film of his career and we feel that it's the only one that can beat The Zone of Interest at the moment.
(Denmark, Mexico, Morocco)
Let's take a look at the next set of films.
These four films could become nominated due to how brilliant they are, but they are also flying under the radar and making it to the final five will be really surprising for most people.
The Mother of All Lies feels like the unlikeliest from this group to be nominated. The main reason for it is because it wasn't shortlisted for the final 15 Best Documentaries, unlike 20 Days in Mariupol and Four Daughters. This puts it behind those two films already and so we can't see three documentaries getting nominated.
The Promised Land is the latest film for Mads Mikkelsen. And Denmark has been on a stellar streak lately, being shortlisted four times in a row including winning the Oscar for Another Round. Director Nikolaj Arcel was also nominated for A Royal Affair in 2012. Despite all of this, the film doesn't seem to have as much buzz as some of the other shortlisted films. It hasn't been nominated for any of the awards so far this year, and it feels like it'll just miss getting nominated this time around.
Speaking of stellar steaks, Mexico has also been shortlisted four times in a row as well. Totem has been getting recognized at various awards shows this year, including NBR and it was the runner-up at the LA Film Critics behind The Zone of Interest. The film is getting backed by Janus Films, which led EO to a nomination last year, and it'll be released in theatres later this month. If a film is going to surprise, it might be this one.
Or it might be The Monk and the Gun. Director Pawo Choyning Dorji was nominated two years ago for Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom. And he's back again with another crowd-pleaser with his latest film. The film has been winning audience awards at film festivals and it feels like it might just surprise again this year. It's a hunch that we're having due to the film being so different compared to the other 15 shortlisted films.
These four films could become nominated due to how brilliant they are, but they are also flying under the radar and making it to the final five will be really surprising for most people.
- The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)
- The Promised Land (Denmark)
- Totem (Mexico)
- The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
The Mother of All Lies feels like the unlikeliest from this group to be nominated. The main reason for it is because it wasn't shortlisted for the final 15 Best Documentaries, unlike 20 Days in Mariupol and Four Daughters. This puts it behind those two films already and so we can't see three documentaries getting nominated.
The Promised Land is the latest film for Mads Mikkelsen. And Denmark has been on a stellar streak lately, being shortlisted four times in a row including winning the Oscar for Another Round. Director Nikolaj Arcel was also nominated for A Royal Affair in 2012. Despite all of this, the film doesn't seem to have as much buzz as some of the other shortlisted films. It hasn't been nominated for any of the awards so far this year, and it feels like it'll just miss getting nominated this time around.
Speaking of stellar steaks, Mexico has also been shortlisted four times in a row as well. Totem has been getting recognized at various awards shows this year, including NBR and it was the runner-up at the LA Film Critics behind The Zone of Interest. The film is getting backed by Janus Films, which led EO to a nomination last year, and it'll be released in theatres later this month. If a film is going to surprise, it might be this one.
Or it might be The Monk and the Gun. Director Pawo Choyning Dorji was nominated two years ago for Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom. And he's back again with another crowd-pleaser with his latest film. The film has been winning audience awards at film festivals and it feels like it might just surprise again this year. It's a hunch that we're having due to the film being so different compared to the other 15 shortlisted films.
(Japan, France, Finland)
So now we head to these five films:
Fallen Leaves debuted at the Cannes Film Festival to rave reviews. We knew that Finland would choose it as their film and we instantly had it as a top contender. The film has been nominated at the NBR Awards, the Golden Globes, including a best actress nomination for Alma Poysti, and it was shortlisted at the BAFTA Awards too. What makes the film so special though is that it is also different than the other films. It's a love story, it's funny, it's sweet, and so it stands out.
The Taste of Things also received fantastic reviews coming out of Cannes. Juliette Binoche stars in the film which has been nominated at the Critics Choice Awards and it was shortlisted at BAFTA too. We wonder though if Anatomy of a Fall has stolen its spotlight. Will nominating Anatomy of a Fall for best picture, best screenplay and hopefully best actress lessen the chances for The Taste of Things to be nominated? Will voters think that supporting one French film is enough for this season? It's impossible to guess.
The Teachers' Lounge is the latest German entry, which won the Oscar last year for All Quiet on the Western Front. It started its campaign early on at the Berlin Film Festival and after being chosen over Afire and Anselm we knew that it had to be a good film. And it's better than we expected it to be. This classroom drama is one of the best films of the year, and it's been nominated at the NBR Awards, along with being shortlisted at BAFTA. The film is definitely strong enough to get nominated.
The Captain also had very stiff competition this year from La Chimera and Kidnapped, but it was chosen to represent Italy. Matteo Garrone is one of the best directors in the world right now and his latest film, based on a true story, might be his best one yet. The film was nominated for a Golden Globe nomination and its intense story will be incredibly hard to forget. The film will be released next month as well.
Perfect Days also debuted at the Cannes Film Festival to ecstatic reviews and Koji Yakusho is getting recognized for his incredible work in the film. The film is a quiet portrait of the life of a man, his day to day routines, and the small pleasures that bring meaning to his existence. The film was nominated for the Critics Choice Awards too. It was chosen to represent Japan over Monster and the film is one of the best reviewed films of the year.
So who are the five films we predict will get nominated?
The Zone of Interest is in. Society of the Snow is probably in. We feel that 20 Days in Mariupol will get in slightly over Four Daughters. Between Fallen Leaves and The Monk and the Gun, we feel that the Finnish film will get in slightly ahead of the Bhutanese film. And in an impossible guess, we think that The Teachers' Lounge will narrowly beat The Taste of Things, The Captain, Perfect Days and Totem.
We will predict the following five films:
- Fallen Leaves (Finland)
- The Taste of Things (France)
- The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)
- The Captain (Italy)
- Perfect Days (Japan)
Fallen Leaves debuted at the Cannes Film Festival to rave reviews. We knew that Finland would choose it as their film and we instantly had it as a top contender. The film has been nominated at the NBR Awards, the Golden Globes, including a best actress nomination for Alma Poysti, and it was shortlisted at the BAFTA Awards too. What makes the film so special though is that it is also different than the other films. It's a love story, it's funny, it's sweet, and so it stands out.
The Taste of Things also received fantastic reviews coming out of Cannes. Juliette Binoche stars in the film which has been nominated at the Critics Choice Awards and it was shortlisted at BAFTA too. We wonder though if Anatomy of a Fall has stolen its spotlight. Will nominating Anatomy of a Fall for best picture, best screenplay and hopefully best actress lessen the chances for The Taste of Things to be nominated? Will voters think that supporting one French film is enough for this season? It's impossible to guess.
The Teachers' Lounge is the latest German entry, which won the Oscar last year for All Quiet on the Western Front. It started its campaign early on at the Berlin Film Festival and after being chosen over Afire and Anselm we knew that it had to be a good film. And it's better than we expected it to be. This classroom drama is one of the best films of the year, and it's been nominated at the NBR Awards, along with being shortlisted at BAFTA. The film is definitely strong enough to get nominated.
The Captain also had very stiff competition this year from La Chimera and Kidnapped, but it was chosen to represent Italy. Matteo Garrone is one of the best directors in the world right now and his latest film, based on a true story, might be his best one yet. The film was nominated for a Golden Globe nomination and its intense story will be incredibly hard to forget. The film will be released next month as well.
Perfect Days also debuted at the Cannes Film Festival to ecstatic reviews and Koji Yakusho is getting recognized for his incredible work in the film. The film is a quiet portrait of the life of a man, his day to day routines, and the small pleasures that bring meaning to his existence. The film was nominated for the Critics Choice Awards too. It was chosen to represent Japan over Monster and the film is one of the best reviewed films of the year.
So who are the five films we predict will get nominated?
The Zone of Interest is in. Society of the Snow is probably in. We feel that 20 Days in Mariupol will get in slightly over Four Daughters. Between Fallen Leaves and The Monk and the Gun, we feel that the Finnish film will get in slightly ahead of the Bhutanese film. And in an impossible guess, we think that The Teachers' Lounge will narrowly beat The Taste of Things, The Captain, Perfect Days and Totem.
We will predict the following five films:
- Fallen Leaves (Finland)
- The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)
- Society of the Snow (Spain)
- 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
- The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)